by 2 Cylivers
I was pretty disappointed with my own success rate of 30% in my 2006 Oscar picks. It just proved to me how wrong one can get about predicting the choices of the Academy.
But, how and why did I go so wrong? Well, a quick post-mortem of my Best Picture pick revealed that the Golden Globe winner had probably influenced my decision subconsciously. So, I analyzed past history to examine if there is indeed any correlation between the Golden Globes and the Oscars and to determine if at all the Golden Globe awards should serve as a guiding beacon for your Oscar pick.
To begin with, the Golden Globe motion picture nominations and awards were started in 1952. Unlike the Academy Awards, each year the Hollywood Foreign Press Association selects two movies in the Best Motion Picture category – one for drama and the other for musical or comedy. There are at least 5 nominations in each Golden Globe category for best motion picture.
A summary of the findings of my statistical analysis follows:
Over the last 56 years, there have been a total of 524 Golden Globe nominations (excluding 1955 & 1956, when there were no nominations) in the best motion picture category. Only 220 – just 42% - of these movies were nominated for the Academy Award Best Picture award.
Similarly, there have been a total of 112 movies that have won the Best Motion Picture award at the Golden Globes. Only 35 of these 112 movies won the Best Picture Oscar award – a mere 31%.
Clearly, using the Golden Globe award as the basis for predicting the Oscar winner yields inefficient results. It presents a low-probability method for determining your Oscar pick.
